(319) Leona - physical model to predict the occultation of Betelgeuse (preliminary!)

Leona is in a tumbling rotation state characterized by two periods: 314 and 1172 hours. The convex shape model is shown here.

The model was reconstructed from Pilcher's data (see the fit below) and sparse-in-time photometry from ATLAS and Gaia DR3.

Fit to the two occultations, volume-equivalent size is 58 km. The plots show sky-plane projections with the equatorial north up and west to the right.

Prediction for 12 Dec 2023.

Animation of Leona's rotation between 2016 and 2023. Sky-plane projection with equatorial north up and west to the right. The red line shows the direction of the angular momentum vector, the yellow line is the body-fixed z-axis, α is the solar phase angle.


Josef Durech (durech@sirrah.troja.mff.cuni.cz), 28 Nov 2023